According to the announcement of the National Food Trading Center, the total amount of maize stored in the domestic planned sales from August 3 to 4 (1677,5.00,0.30%) was 3.46 million tons, down by 980,000 tons from last week. On August 3, it plans to sell 526,000 tons of maize for production, distribution and loan in 2013, and on August 4, it has been selling 124,000 tons of imported maize before the directional auction. This week plans to sell 4 million tons of stored corn, down 1 million tons from last week.
North China's increase in prices has dropped sharply
With the increase of maize storage, the inflection point of maize decline came in late July. This week, the price of Maize in North China entered a rapid decline path. Monitoring shows that as of August 2, the purchase price of 14.5% moisture three-class Maize in Weifang, Shouguang and Heze deep processing enterprises in Shandong Province was about 1750 yuan/ton, 30-50 yuan/ton lower than last week, 60-100 yuan/ton lower than mid-July; the purchase price of Shijiazhuang deep processing enterprises in Hebei Province was about 1750 yuan/ton, and that of Qinhuangdao was about 1660 yuan/ton, both lower than last week. The purchase price of Zhoukou Deep Processing Enterprise in Henan Province is about 1770 yuan/ton, and Hebi is about 1800 yuan/ton, which is 20-40 yuan/ton lower than last week.
Between May 5th and June 5th this year, 25 million 740 thousand tons of corn were put into storage, and 21 million 290 thousand tons were sold. According to the 45-day warehousing cycle, maize traded in May will be converted into effective market supply in mid-July. In May, the average price of Maize in store was 1386 yuan per ton. Under the impact of a large number of low-priced Maize in store, the import price of Maize in North China fell sharply this week. Although the downward trend is obvious, in August, corn prices were still supported by auction grain costs, and the decline should not be exaggerated. Taking the maize production in 2013 as an example, the average transaction price in June 2017 was about 1,350 yuan/ton. According to this price, the import price in North China was estimated to be about 1,700 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of Maize in North China will be supported by the bottom of this price in August.
The speed of warehousing accelerated and the trend of decline in August.
As of the end of July, the corn auction for a total of 13 weeks, with a total turnover of 39 million 280 thousand tons. According to the trading rules, it can be calculated by converting 45 days after the transaction into the effective supply of the market. By mid-September at the latest, all the maize that has been traded can be converted into the effective supply of the market. According to market reflection, the actual quantity of warehousing is about 20 million tons. In the next one and a half months, about 20 million tons will be released to the market. In addition, in August, maize began to appear on the market in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 2017, and imported maize arrived in Hong Kong. The total new supply is about 25 million tons.
In the next two months, corn demand will be around 30 million tons. At present, the stock of grain enterprises is expected to exceed 10 million tons. Specifically, the inventory days of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China are about 28 days, that of deep processing enterprises in North China is about 15 days, and that of many feed enterprises in South China is more than one month. Therefore, before the large number of new maize was listed in October, the supply of the national maize market can fully meet the needs of all grain enterprises. The overall supply of maize market is loose, and the current market reflects that the speed of maize out of stock is faster than the earlier period, and the price of maize market will still show a downward trend in August.
However, it should be noted that in September, the arrival of stale grain in North China will be dominated by maize production in 2014, which is at least 60 yuan/ton higher than the cost of maize production in 2013. Corn prices in North China are expected to rise somewhat in September, but from the trading situation in 2014, the average price of corn is gradually declining, coupled with the supply pressure of corn, the downward trend of prices will not change.
As of last weekend, maize trading volume in three northeastern provinces and one region reached 37.58 million tons. With the continuous increase of warehousing, the price of Maize in northern ports showed a downward trend. Monitoring shows that on August 2, the price of second-class stale maize within 15% moisture in Jinzhou Port (4.62-1.07%, diagnostic unit) of Liaoning Province was 1600-1630 yuan/ton, that of Guyuquan Port was 1600-1610 yuan/ton, and that of mainstream stale Maize in northern port was 1650-1670 yuan/ton, which were 20-30 yuan/ton lower than the same period last week. Corn prices in northern ports dropped by about 50 yuan/ton in late July. Now the speed of discharging warehouses has been accelerated, and the arrival volume in August will continue to increase. Considering the cost of corn auctions, the price of corn in northern ports is expected to fall by 50 yuan per ton in August.
The weekly volume of northern ports increased year by year. Monitoring showed that the weekly amount of Maize in four northern ports last week was 516,000 tons, an increase of 132,000 tons over last week, and an increase of 210,000 tons over the same period last year. Affected by the decline of corn prices in northern ports and the increase of maize arrivals, maize prices in southern ports also showed a downward trend. As of August 2, the mainstream quotation of second-class stale Maize in Guangdong port ranged from 1760 to 1790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week.
In August, the arrival of Sorghum in Guangdong port is expected to recover to about 250,000 tons, that of corn in the United States is expected to be about 250,000 tons, and that of barley imported from Ukraine is expected to exceed 300,000 tons. Full supply of fodder and grain, coupled with the weakening of corn prices in northern ports, is expected to lower corn prices in southern ports in August.
This week, due to the accelerated pace of warehousing, the supply of maize for immediate storage increased, the market price of maize dropped sharply, and starch prices fell accordingly. As of August 2, starch ex-factory price: Binzhou, Shandong Province, is about 230 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; Shijiazhuang, Hebei, Qinhuangdao, about 2200 yuan/ton, down 40-50 yuan/ton; Shenyang, Liaoning, about 2180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton.