In the first half of 2017, domestic cotton prices showed a volatile and flat trend. On July 24, the price of cotton was 15 903 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.68% compared with the beginning of the year, and basically maintained the same level. As of July 28, 2008.05 million tons of cotton were traded, with a turnover rate of 67.87%. At present, about 5.6 million tons of cotton are in stock. In the latter half of this national cotton storage, the turnover rate was slightly lower than that in the first half, and the transaction price first increased and then decreased. According to the comprehensive calculation, the total amount of cotton in stock and in rotation is close to 4 million tons, which can meet the demand of downstream textile enterprises before the new cotton is listed, and the supply is still loose.
Yarn prices increased year-on-year as a whole. In the first half of 2017, the average prices of four kinds of yarns increased by 23.15%, 22.33%, 14.06% and 14.37% respectively. The proportion of domestic yarn production increased. In the first half of 2017, the domestic yarn output was 13.972 million tons, which was the same as that of the previous year. The total net imported cotton yarn was 76.07 million tons, down by 3.69%. At the same time, cloth production also increased year-on-year. In the first half of 2017, domestic cloth production reached 34.6 billion meters, an increase of 4.50% year-on-year. The overall downstream demand warmed up, and the production of various links in the industrial chain became more and more prosperous.
Downstream sales, internal and external sales weak recovery. In terms of export, exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products in 2017H1 amounted to US$53.120 billion, up 2.17% over the same period last year, and increased by 3.90 PCTs over the same period last year. Garment exports totaled 70.933 billion US dollars in January-June, down 0.54% year-on-year, which was 8.9 PCT narrower than the decline in 2016. Domestic sales. In the first half of 2017, the sales of apparel, shoes, hats, needles and textiles per unit above the quota reached 717.17 billion yuan, an increase of 5.22% over the same period of last year, and the sales of apparel category reached 506.32 billion yuan, an increase of 4.64% over the same period of last year.
The difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices has been narrowed and widen since the beginning of the year, and the price of cotton has fluctuated with the expectation of supply. Outer cotton increased sharply before May due to the emergence of stage cotton (15065, -15.00, -0.10%) in India, and the price gap continued to narrow. With the increase of output forecast by USDA, the price of cotton came back, and the latest forecast in July increased the global cotton output by 121,000 tons in 2016/17 again. The trend of cotton production continued to be weak, and the price gap had reached 1110 yuan/ton by July 21.
China and the US have increased domestic demand for cotton, narrowing supply and demand, and anticipate faster consumption. In the latest forecast in July, USDA increased consumption to 8.165 million tons, with a supply and demand gap of 10.548 million tons. It predicted a supply and demand gap of 8.578 million tons in 2017/18. The decline rate was faster than previously expected, mainly due to the rapid decline in stockpiles and the warming up of the downstream, which led to the growth of cotton consumption exceeding expectations. In July, the Ministry of Agriculture of China will also increase cotton consumption by an estimated 100,000 tons to 7.79 million tons in 2016/17, and reduce inventory by 100,000 tons to 9.13 million tons at the end of the year.
Inventory digestibility of clothing sector increased year on year. At the end of 2017Q1, the total inventory of 16 companies in the sector increased by 12.13% compared with the same period. Among them, 10 companies'single-quarter inventory turnover improved year on year. Overall, it was beneficial for the demand of upstream cotton spinning sector.
Overall, the textile industry has a balance of dumping and storage.